LUCAS seminar Urban Energy Microsimulation - Presentation by Darren Robinson

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Background

LUCAS_Seminar_Series 20150408

• Urban Energy Microsimulation
  • Darren Robinson 2002+
  • SUNTool
    • Sustainable Urban Neighbourhood modelling tool
    • Segmentation between interior and exterior of building
      • Based solely on the DEM?
    • Essentially Solar Insolation modelling
    • Vector model
  • DEM based approach
• CitySim http://citysim.epfl.ch/
  • Successor to SUNTool
  • Overview
    • Summary
      • Detailed decision support tool
        • For sustainable planning
      • Micro-simulation
      • Based on modelling
        • urbane energy
        • matter flows
      • Accounts for
        • Occupants behavious
        • Urban (radiative) climate
        • Synergetic energy and matter exchanges
      • Seen as
        • Productive
        • Intuitive
    • Workflow
      • Create/import 3d model (or clones)
        • Formats
        • Parent child inheritance
      • Describe envelope composition
      • Describe occupanys and appliance scheudiles
      • + more
    • Solver
      • 3D scene
        • In XML
      • Radiative model pre-process
        • From
      • Radiation model
      • Thermal model
        • feedback to
      • HVAC models https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVAC
        • heating, ventilation, and air conditioning
        • feedback to
      • ECS models
        • feedback to
    • Radiation exchange
      • Calculate sky radiance distribution for a discretized sky vault
      • Previous approach
        • Isotropic
        • others
    • Calculate occlusion
      • Ends up aggregating the occluding surfaces into a single element
      • Becomes
        • Visible sky
        • Occluded area
    • Calculate radiance
      • Add contribution from
        • Sky
        • Sun
        • Reflected
      • Assumes LAMBERTIAN reflectance characteristics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambertian_reflectance
      • Reflectance
        • Some others may well be SPECULAR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Specular_reflection
        • Models of reflecatnce https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Reflection_models.svg
    • Solve the equation
      • Shortwave radiation
      • Longwave radiation
  • Other bits
    • HVAC moelling
    • Energy conversion systems
      • Solar
      • Wind
      • PVAC
  • Comparators
    • ESP-r http://www.esru.strath.ac.uk/Programs/ESP-r.htm
    • radiance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiance_(software)
  • Stochastic simulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic
    • Physical systems in which we are uncertain about the values of parameters, measurements, expected input and disturbances are termed Stochastic Systems.
    • The same occupant may respond differently on different occassions
    • We may encounter considerable difference to difference individuals under identical scenamrios
    • Methods
      • Bernoulli process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_process
        • Probability
      • Markov Chain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_chain
        • Transitions
      • Continuous time random process
        • Survival analysis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survival_analysis
    • Applying
      • Forward selection
        • tends to be linear regression
      • Cluster analysis
      • k-fold cross validation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-validation_(statistics)#k-fold_cross-validation
• No-MASS
  • Nottingham Multi-Agent Stochastic Simulation
• New opportunities
  • Secondment to UC berkeley
    • UrbanSim http://www.urbansim.org/Main/WebHome
    • Co-Simulation
• Things to do
  • ARB - consider presentation on CityGML